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Friday, October 31, 2025

Climate analyst on 45X and critical minerals in Michigan: ‘The bill would raise the depletion allowance for rare earth elements'

Webp peter cook

Peter Cook, Analyst of Climate and Energy | Breakthrough Institute

Peter Cook, Analyst of Climate and Energy | Breakthrough Institute

Peter Cook, a climate analyst, said that the One Big Beautiful Bill narrows Section 45X by phasing out credits for all 50 critical minerals and adding a metallurgical coal credit in Michigan. The statement was made on X.

"The bill would raise the depletion allowance for rare earth elements from 14% to 22," said Cook. "This comes after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act both (1) phased out 45X production tax credits for all 50 critical minerals and (2) even introduced a new production tax credit for metallurgical coal."

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) modifies Section 45X eligibility by disqualifying wind components after December 31, 2027, tightening restrictions on "foreign entities of concern," and refining Treasury oversight of critical-mineral sourcing. These provisions shorten credit timelines and add compliance pressure on clean-energy manufacturers, including battery and minerals projects in Michigan’s growing electric vehicle corridor, according to Sidley’s analysis of OBBBA’s implementation provisions.

The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that OBBBA’s revisions to Section 45X—chiefly ending wind eligibility and phasing out mineral credits—will reduce total utilization and raise about $50 billion in revenue over ten years. This implies a smaller pipeline of critical-mineral credit claims between 2025 and 2030, with downstream effects on U.S. manufacturers, according to Brownstein’s summary of JCT scoring.

OBBBA phases out Section 45X for wind components after 2027 and gradually reduces mineral-related credits—75% in 2031, 50% in 2032, 25% in 2033, and none after 2034—with metallurgical-coal eligibility expiring in 2029. These staggered timelines alter investment horizons for clean-energy suppliers, including those in Michigan’s auto-battery sector, according to Williams Mullen’s legal briefing on OBBBA.

Cook is a Climate & Energy Analyst at the Breakthrough Institute, where he studies industrial-materials and critical-minerals policy. He holds B.S. and M.S. degrees in Earth and Environmental Sciences from the University of Michigan and has published analyses on mining and energy incentives, according to the Breakthrough Institute.

The Breakthrough Institute’s Climate & Energy program advances innovation-driven strategies to "make clean energy cheap," researching advanced nuclear technology, grids, storage solutions, and mineral policy across U.S. manufacturing hubs such as Michigan. Founded in 2003, the Berkeley-based nonprofit emphasizes pragmatic technological solutions to climate challenges.

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